The effects on population dynamical key-processes of a changing climate in Arctic ecosystems

Specifically, we will use long-term monitoring data on population dynamics and population-specific demography to parameterize stochastic population models. The models will provide the basis for estimating key factors related to population changes, such as the relative contribution of deterministic and stochastic factors, the size and scale of environmental noise, and the effects of trophic interactions.

The effects of extreme weather/climate events on population dynamics will be quantified with respect to different trophic levels and future impacts. Dynamical down-scaled climate scenarios for Svalbard will be used to examine how future population dynamics will be affected by climate change. Finally, the project will quantify uncertainties in sampling and models for appropriate data sets which will facilitate an evaluation of the ongoing monitoring in arctic ecosystems.

Using information from different trophic levels in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems on Svalbard and in the Barents Sea the project will produce new and vital knowledge on the biological effects of a changing climate in the Arctic. The PIs are Dr. Ronny Aanes and Dr. Harald Steen (Co-PI). Collaborating partners include the Population Biology Centre (PBC) at NTNU, the Institute of Marine Research (IMR), the University of Tromsø (UiT), NORUT IT, and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET). This programme is financially assisted by NFR and will be conducted during the period 2007 – 2010.